I really like this total this week. Nothing will really fool either defense here as both teams run the ball over 70% of the time and San Diego State will probably increase their 71% average since their starting QB is out for this one as they will rely on their defense here. SD Stateâs head coach Rocky Long has faced Air Force every season dating back to 1998, and heâs gotten better and better at defending the triple option holding this offense to 14, 20, and 9 points the last 3 years. San Diego State probably has their best run defense yet allowing just 2.35 yards per carry on the year.
I still think this is a competitive game as Air Force very good fundamental team that can also stop the run. They have only allowed 2 opponents to rush for more than 200 yards this season. When San Diego State does not run for 200 yards they have scored 7, 27, and 21 points and have gone 0-3. San Diego State is home for this game essentially, but not really considering the fact that they will play at the Chargers Stadium and San Diego has a large military population. Plenty of support here for Air Force.
However, I do see San Diego State controlling this game, and I think they slow it down they are ranked 99th in tempo. As I mentioned their run defense is superb. Air Force has averaged 43 points per game when they run for 299 or more yards, but just 22 when they are held under that mark, and 4 of those 5 games they scored 23 or less. Iâm expecting a 23-14 or 23-10 type of final. I do give the edge to San Diego State, because they can completely take Air Forceâs offense out of this game, but Air Force very very good in the red zone allowing just 43% TD percentage. I would not be shocked at all if Air Force pulls the upset, but if they do itâs going to be 17-14 type of game. Either way I like the under with San Diego State controlling the game, and they are 21-7 on the under in their last 28 on grass.
